🇸🇳 Senegal vs Iraq 🇮🇶

Senegal's expected goals (1.96) against Iraq's 0.74 reflect a dominant attacking advantage, driven by their superior FIFA ranking (#14 vs #68) and likely control of possession in the final third. The xG differential of +1.22 suggests Senegal will create high-quality chances, while Iraq's low xG indicates they may struggle to generate clear opportunities from open play.

The win probability split (Senegal 66%, Iraq 13.3%) heavily favors Senegal, but the 20.7% draw probability is notable—higher than typical for such a ranking gap. This could stem from Iraq's defensive organization in a neutral venue, as they often sit deep and absorb pressure, which may limit Senegal's conversion rate despite high xG.

This is Senegal's third consecutive World Cup appearance (2022, 2026), while Iraq returns after a 40-year absence (last in 1986). Iraq's historical World Cup record (0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses) and Senegal's recent knockout-stage experience (2022 Round of 16) add context to the statistical model's confidence in Senegal.

The most likely scoreline (1-0 at 13.2%) and second most likely (2-0 at 12.9%) align with a controlled Senegal victory. However, the narrow margin suggests Iraq's defense could keep the game close, making a 2-0 or 1-0 result more probable than a rout, given Senegal's occasional finishing inefficiency in tournament settings.