🇫🇷 France vs Senegal 🇸🇳

France's xG of 1.44 against Senegal's 1.26 suggests a narrow edge in chance creation, but the 41.5% win probability indicates this is far from a foregone conclusion. Senegal's defensive organization, typically compact and disciplined under pressure, will be key to limiting France's high-volume attacking threats from wide areas and set pieces.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2%) reflects the model's view of a tightly contested midfield battle. France's reliance on quick transitions could be neutralized by Senegal's athleticism in central areas, while Senegal's counter-attacking efficiency—often driven by pace on the flanks—may exploit any high defensive line from France.

Senegal, ranked 14th, have historically struggled against top-5 FIFA sides in World Cup knockout stages, but their 2022 Round of 16 exit to England (3–0) was closer than the scoreline suggests. France, as defending champions (2022), carry the weight of expectation but have a mixed record in group openers: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses since 1998.

The model's second most likely score of 1–0 (9.7%) for France aligns with their tendency to grind out low-scoring wins in tournament openers. However, Senegal's 32.8% win probability is significant enough to consider a surprise result, especially if France's creative midfield fails to break down a deep block. Expect under 2.5 total goals (implied by xG sum of 2.70).