🇫🇷 France vs Iraq 🇮🇶

France's expected goals (xG) of 2.03 against Iraq's 0.67 reflects a dominant attacking output, driven by their elite pressing and transition play. Iraq's defensive structure, ranked 68th globally, is likely to be overwhelmed by France's ability to generate high-quality chances from central areas, as indicated by the 2-0 most likely scoreline (13.8% probability).

The win probability split (France 69.3% vs Iraq 11.2%) underscores a massive gap in squad depth and tournament experience. Iraq's best path to a result relies on set-piece efficiency and counter-attacks, but France's defensive solidity (conceding only 0.67 xG) suggests they can neutralize such threats, making a clean sheet highly probable.

Historically, France has dominated lower-ranked opponents in World Cup group stages, with an average xG differential of +1.5 in such matches since 2018. Iraq, making only their second World Cup appearance, has never progressed past the group stage, and their 0.67 xG output aligns with the average for teams ranked outside the top 50 facing top-5 sides.

The model's second most likely scoreline (1-0 at 13.6%) indicates a potential for a tighter match if Iraq sits deep, but France's superior individual quality and set-piece threat (notably from corners) should secure a multi-goal margin. The 2-0 prediction is the most data-consistent outcome, given France's 2.03 xG and Iraq's low scoring probability.