🇳🇴 Norway vs Senegal 🇸🇳

Despite Senegal's higher FIFA ranking and 44% win probability, Norway's xG of 1.2 against Senegal's 1.5 suggests a tighter contest than the ranking gap implies, with Norway's attacking efficiency potentially exploiting Senegal's occasional defensive lapses in transition.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.1% probability) reflects a balanced midfield battle, but the second most likely 0–1 (10.1%) indicates Senegal's superior defensive structure under pressure, likely anchored by their center-back partnership, could stifle Norway's primary scoring threats.

Senegal's World Cup history includes a Round of 16 appearance in 2022, while Norway has not qualified since 1998; this experience gap may influence late-game composure, as Senegal's 44% win probability edges out the draw and Norway's combined 56% chance of avoiding defeat.

The model's xG differential (0.3 in Senegal's favor) and win probability align with Senegal controlling possession and creating higher-quality chances, but Norway's set-piece threat—a key factor in their xG output—could be the equalizer, making the 1–1 draw a strong prediction.