🇮🇶 Iraq vs Norway 🇳🇴

Norway's expected goals (1.83) nearly double Iraq's (0.87), reflecting a clear attacking advantage driven by their higher FIFA ranking (#31 vs #68) and superior squad depth. Iraq's defensive organization will be tested, as the model assigns them only a 17.3% win probability, suggesting they must rely on set pieces or counter-attacks to close the xG gap.

The most likely scoreline (0–1, 12.3%) and second most likely (0–2, 11.3%) indicate a low-scoring affair where Norway controls possession but may struggle to convert chances into a rout. Iraq's xG of 0.87 implies they can create a few dangerous opportunities, likely from transitions or dead-ball situations, but their finishing efficiency must be exceptional to overcome the 60.3% Norwegian win probability.

This is Iraq's first World Cup appearance since 1986, while Norway returns after a 28-year absence (last in 1998). The neutral venue removes home advantage, but Norway's experience in European qualifiers against top sides gives them a tactical edge. Iraq's underdog status is reflected in the 22.4% draw probability, which would be a significant result for Asian football.

The model's 60.3% win probability for Norway aligns with their higher xG and ranking, but the 0–1 most likely score suggests a narrow victory. Iraq's best path to points is a disciplined defensive block and exploiting Norway's occasional defensive lapses, though the statistical output favors a Norwegian win by a single goal.