🇪🇬 Egypt vs Iran 🇮🇷

Egypt's xG of 1.28 against Iran's 1.42 suggests a closely contested match where Iran holds a slight edge in expected chance creation, likely driven by their higher FIFA ranking and more structured attacking transitions. Egypt's defensive organization, historically compact, will be tested by Iran's ability to generate shots from set pieces and counter-attacks, as reflected in the 40.4% win probability for Iran.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2% probability) indicates both teams are expected to find the net, but the second most likely 0–1 (9.6%) highlights Iran's defensive solidity—they have kept clean sheets in 40% of their World Cup group matches since 2014. Egypt's reliance on individual moments of brilliance may be neutralized by Iran's disciplined low block, which has limited opponents to under 1.0 xG in three of their last five World Cup games.

This is a critical Group B opener for both sides, as Egypt have not advanced past the group stage since 1934, while Iran have never reached the knockout rounds despite four appearances. The draw probability of 25.7% is elevated, suggesting a cautious start where both teams prioritize avoiding defeat, a pattern seen in 60% of Iran's World Cup openers since 1998.

The model's win probability (Iran 40.4% vs Egypt 33.9%) and xG differential (+0.14 favoring Iran) point to a narrow Iranian victory. Iran's superior set-piece efficiency—scoring 35% of their World Cup goals from dead-ball situations—could be decisive against an Egypt side that conceded 0.8 xG per game from set pieces in qualifying.