🇧🇪 Belgium vs Iran 🇮🇷

Belgium's xG of 1.44 against Iran's 1.26 reflects a narrow edge in chance creation, but the win probability (41.5% vs 32.8%) suggests the model sees Belgium as vulnerable, likely due to defensive lapses that Iran can exploit on the counter.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2%) aligns with both teams' tendency to concede: Belgium have kept a clean sheet in only 30% of their last 10 World Cup matches, while Iran's compact defense often holds but breaks once under sustained pressure.

Iran's historical resilience in group stages—they held Portugal to a 1–1 draw in 2018 and nearly eliminated Argentina in 2014—makes the 32.8% win probability credible, especially given Belgium's aging core and potential fatigue in a neutral venue.

The second most likely score of 1–0 (9.7%) favors Belgium, but the model's draw probability (25.7%) combined with the xG gap of just 0.18 suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where a single set-piece or defensive error decides the outcome.