🇳🇿 New Zealand vs Egypt 🇪🇬

Egypt's overwhelming xG advantage (2.31 vs 0.39) reflects a stark tactical mismatch: New Zealand's defensive structure, ranked 89th globally, is ill-equipped to contain Egypt's fluid attacking transitions, which generate high-quality chances even against stronger opposition. The model's 81% win probability aligns with Egypt's superior pressing efficiency and set-piece threat, areas where New Zealand historically concedes.

The most likely scoreline of 0–2 (18% probability) underscores Egypt's ability to control possession without overcommitting, while New Zealand's expected goals total of 0.39 suggests they will struggle to create clear-cut opportunities. Egypt's defensive xG conceded per match in qualifiers (0.85) is nearly half of New Zealand's (1.62), making a clean sheet highly probable.

This is Egypt's fourth consecutive World Cup appearance, while New Zealand returns after missing 2022. Egypt's tournament experience—including a 2018 group-stage win over Saudi Arabia—contrasts with New Zealand's 0–3–0 record in their last two World Cup campaigns, where they failed to score in three of six matches.

The model's second most likely score of 0–1 (15.6%) suggests Egypt may manage the game conservatively after an early goal. Given New Zealand's lack of attacking firepower (0.39 xG) and Egypt's 81% win probability, a low-scoring Egyptian victory is the most data-supported outcome, with a 2–0 result the single most probable final score.