🇺🇸 USA vs Paraguay 🇵🇾

USA's xG advantage of 1.57 to 1.13 reflects their higher FIFA ranking and likely control of possession, but the narrow margin suggests Paraguay's compact defense and counter-attacking threat will keep the match tight. The win probability split (47.6% USA vs. 27.3% Paraguay) indicates a competitive contest where USA's superior squad depth may not translate into dominance.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (11.9% probability) aligns with both teams' recent World Cup trends: USA has drawn 3 of their last 5 group-stage matches, while Paraguay historically relies on set pieces and defensive organization to neutralize stronger opponents. The second-most likely 1–0 (10.6%) underscores the importance of an early goal for USA to avoid a low-scoring stalemate.

This is a crucial group-stage fixture for both sides: USA aims to build on their 2022 Round of 16 appearance, while Paraguay seeks to advance past the group stage for the first time since 2010. The neutral venue eliminates home advantage, making the xG gap more predictive of actual chances created.

Given the 25.1% draw probability and the 1–1 most likely score, a cautious approach is expected. USA's higher xG suggests they will create more clear chances, but Paraguay's ability to absorb pressure and hit on the break—combined with their 27.3% win probability—makes a narrow USA win (1–0) the most plausible outcome if they convert early.