🇹🇷 Türkiye vs Paraguay 🇵🇾

Türkiye's xG advantage of 1.52 to 1.18 reflects their superior attacking efficiency, likely driven by creative midfield transitions and set-piece threat, but their win probability (45.3%) is only modest due to Paraguay's defensive resilience and counter-attacking speed, which can suppress high-xG chances.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12% probability) suggests a tightly contested midfield battle, with Paraguay's low-block structure forcing Türkiye into lower-quality shots; the second-most likely 1–0 (10.2%) indicates Türkiye's ability to nick a narrow lead if they convert early pressure.

Türkiye's 2026 World Cup campaign benefits from a neutral venue, leveling Paraguay's home advantage, while Paraguay's historical knockout-stage experience (quarterfinals in 2010) contrasts with Türkiye's semifinal run in 2002—both teams seeking to re-establish pedigree after missing recent tournaments.

Expect a low-scoring affair: Türkiye's 45.3% win probability and 1.52 xG suggest they create enough to score once, but Paraguay's 29.4% win chance and 1.18 xG imply they can equalize via set pieces or a single counter, making a 1–1 draw the most probable outcome.