🇺🇾 Uruguay vs Spain 🇪🇸

Spain's xG advantage (1.46 vs 1.24) reflects their superior possession-based build-up, but Uruguay's compact defensive structure and set-piece threat could narrow the gap, as seen in their 32.1% win probability despite the ranking disparity.

The 0–1 scoreline (9.8% probability) highlights Spain's efficiency in converting limited chances against low blocks, a pattern consistent with their World Cup knockout history, while Uruguay's 1.24 xG suggests they will create at least one high-quality opportunity, likely from a transition or dead-ball situation.

Uruguay's historical resilience in neutral-site World Cup matches (e.g., 2010 semifinal vs Netherlands) contrasts with Spain's tendency to dominate possession but struggle against disciplined South American defenses, as seen in their 2018 round-of-16 exit to Russia.

The most likely score (1–1, 12.2%) aligns with the narrow xG margin and both teams' defensive solidity; Spain's 42.3% win probability is not overwhelming, and Uruguay's 32.1% chance is significant for a #17 vs #2 matchup, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.