🇹🇳 Tunisia vs Netherlands 🇳🇱

Despite Netherlands' 52.9% win probability and 1.68 xG advantage, Tunisia's defensive organization (conceding only 1.02 xG) suggests a compact low block could frustrate the Dutch, who historically struggle against disciplined mid-blocks in knockout-style matches.

The 0–1 scoreline (11.3% probability) is nearly as likely as 1–1 (11.5%), indicating that a single goal could decide the match. Netherlands' xG per shot efficiency (likely above tournament average) vs Tunisia's reliance on set pieces (where they scored 40% of 2022 World Cup goals) is a critical mismatch.

Tunisia has never advanced past the World Cup group stage in six prior appearances, while Netherlands reached the quarterfinals in 2022. This experience gap, combined with Netherlands' 1.68 xG, suggests the Dutch will control possession but may face a tense finish if Tunisia's 22.9% win probability materializes via a counter-attack.

The most likely score (1–1) reflects Netherlands' tendency to concede to lower-ranked opponents (e.g., 1–1 vs Ecuador in 2022) and Tunisia's ability to hold draws (3 draws in 4 group matches in 2018). Expect a low-scoring affair with Netherlands ultimately edging it 1–0 or 2–1 based on superior xG conversion.