🇹🇳 Tunisia vs Japan 🇯🇵

Japan's xG advantage of 1.6 to 1.1 reflects their superior FIFA ranking (#18 vs #44) and likely possession-based approach, but Tunisia's defensive organization could limit high-quality chances, as indicated by the 24.9% draw probability and 1–1 most likely scoreline.

The 49% win probability for Japan is not overwhelming, suggesting that Tunisia's counter-attacking threat—potentially exploiting set pieces or transitions—could be decisive, especially given the 0–1 second most likely score (10.8%) implying a narrow margin.

Tunisia historically struggles against Asian sides in World Cups (0 wins in 3 meetings), while Japan has advanced from the group stage in two of the last four tournaments, adding a psychological edge that aligns with their statistical favoritism.

The model's 1–1 most likely score (11.8%) and 26.1% Tunisia win probability indicate a competitive match, but Japan's higher xG and win probability suggest they will control proceedings; a low-scoring Japan win (e.g., 1–0 or 2–1) is the most probable outcome given the defensive balance.