🏴 Scotland vs Morocco 🇲🇦

Morocco's 1.66 xG against Scotland's 1.04 reflects a clear quality gap, driven by Morocco's superior attacking efficiency (#8 FIFA ranking) and Scotland's defensive vulnerabilities in transition. The 52% win probability for Morocco aligns with their ability to generate higher-quality chances, while Scotland's 23.6% win probability suggests they rely on set pieces or counterattacks to close the xG gap.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (11.6% probability) indicates a competitive match where Scotland's defensive organization could limit Morocco to a single goal, but Morocco's second-most-likely 0–1 (11.2%) highlights their capacity to win via a narrow margin. Scotland's xG of 1.04 suggests they need near-perfect finishing to avoid a loss, as their expected output is below Morocco's defensive xG suppression metrics.

Morocco's 2022 World Cup semifinal run (first African team to reach that stage) gives them a significant tournament experience edge over Scotland, who have not advanced past the group stage since 1998. This historical disparity amplifies Morocco's 52% win probability, as they are accustomed to high-pressure knockout-style matches even in group play.

The prediction favors Morocco to win 1–0 or 2–1, as their xG advantage (1.66 vs 1.04) and win probability (52%) outweigh Scotland's draw chance (24.4%). Scotland's most likely score of 1–1 is plausible but less probable than a narrow Morocco victory, given Morocco's defensive solidity (conceded only 1 goal in 2022 World Cup knockout stages).