🇭🇹 Haiti vs Scotland 🏴

Scotland's expected goals (xG) of 2.15 versus Haiti's 0.55 indicates a dominant attacking advantage for Scotland, driven by their higher FIFA ranking (#43 vs #86) and superior squad depth. Haiti's defensive structure will likely be overwhelmed by Scotland's pressing and set-piece efficiency, as reflected in the 74.3% win probability.

The most likely scoreline of 0–2 (15.5% probability) and second most likely 0–1 (14.4%) suggest a low-scoring but controlled Scottish victory. Haiti's xG of 0.55 implies they will generate few clear chances, likely from counter-attacks or set pieces, but Scotland's defensive organization should limit high-quality opportunities.

This is Haiti's first World Cup appearance since 1974, while Scotland returns after missing the 2022 tournament. The historical gap in tournament experience is stark: Scotland has played 8 World Cup matches since 1998, while Haiti has none. This inexperience often leads to defensive lapses under pressure, aligning with the model's prediction of a multi-goal Scottish win.

The draw probability (17.4%) is low but not negligible, suggesting a potential early Scottish goal could force Haiti to open up, increasing the chance of a 3–0 or 3–1 outcome. However, the model's 74.3% win probability for Scotland and the 0–2 most likely score support a straightforward Scottish victory with clean sheet potential.