🇵🇹 Portugal vs DR Congo 🇨🇩

Portugal's expected goals (xG) of 1.72 reflects their superior attacking efficiency against a DR Congo side ranked 41 places lower, but the 0.98 xG for DR Congo indicates they are capable of creating dangerous chances, likely through transitions and set pieces, given their physical style.

The win probability split (Portugal 54.6%, Draw 23.9%, DR Congo 21.6%) shows Portugal are clear favorites but not dominant, with the most likely scoreline of 1–0 (11.5%) and 1–1 (11.3%) suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair where DR Congo's defensive organization could frustrate Portugal's possession-based attack.

In World Cup history, Portugal have never faced DR Congo, but DR Congo's only previous World Cup appearance (1974 as Zaire) ended with a 0–9 aggregate defeat, making this a historic opportunity for them to prove competitiveness against a top-5 side on a neutral stage.

The model's narrow margin and high draw probability (23.9%) point to a match where Portugal's individual quality should prevail, but DR Congo's ability to absorb pressure and counter could produce an upset if Portugal fail to convert their xG advantage into early goals.