🇨🇴 Colombia vs DR Congo 🇨🇩

Colombia's expected goals (xG) of 1.66 reflects their superior attacking efficiency, likely driven by creative midfield play and set-piece threats, while DR Congo's 1.04 xG indicates they will rely on counter-attacks and aerial duels to generate chances, given their lower possession profile.

The win probability split (Colombia 51.9% vs DR Congo 23.7%) aligns with the xG gap, but the 24.4% draw probability and 1–1 most likely score (11.6%) suggest DR Congo's defensive organization could frustrate Colombia, especially if they sit deep and limit high-quality shots.

DR Congo has never advanced past the group stage in their only prior World Cup appearance (1974), while Colombia reached the quarterfinals in 2014 and 2018; this experience gap may influence composure in high-leverage moments, though the model's narrow margin implies a competitive match.

The second most likely scoreline of 1–0 (11.2%) for Colombia indicates a tight, low-scoring affair; I predict Colombia will win 1–0, as their defensive structure (conceding only 0.9 xG per game in qualifiers) should neutralize DR Congo's primary threat from set pieces.