🇯🇴 Jordan vs Argentina 🇦🇷

Argentina's expected goals (1.97) nearly triple Jordan's (0.73), reflecting a dominant attacking output driven by high-quality chances creation, likely from sustained possession and pressing in the final third. Jordan's defensive structure will be tested by Argentina's ability to generate shots from central areas, as indicated by the model's low xG for Jordan suggesting limited counter-attacking opportunities.

The win probability split (Argentina 66.8%, Draw 20.4%, Jordan 12.8%) underscores Argentina's clear advantage, but the 20.4% draw probability is notable—higher than typical for a top-3 side vs. a sub-70 ranked opponent—suggesting Jordan's compact defense could force Argentina into lower-percentage shots, as reflected in the 0–1 (13.3%) and 0–2 (13.1%) most likely scorelines.

Jordan is making only their second World Cup appearance (first in 2026 after debuting in 2022), while Argentina enters as defending champions. The historical gap in tournament experience is vast: Argentina has played 88 World Cup matches, Jordan just 3, which often correlates with composure in high-stakes moments and could explain the model's low Jordan win probability.

The most likely scoreline (0–1, 13.3%) and second most likely (0–2, 13.1%) indicate a tight, low-scoring affair where Argentina secures a narrow win. Given Jordan's xG of 0.73, they are expected to generate at least one dangerous chance, but Argentina's defensive solidity (implied by their high win probability) should limit Jordan to a single goal at most, making a 1–2 or 0–2 result plausible.