🇯🇴 Jordan vs Algeria 🇩🇿

Algeria's expected goals (1.81) nearly double Jordan's (0.89), reflecting a clear tactical advantage in offensive efficiency. Algeria's higher FIFA ranking (#28) and likely possession-based buildup exploit Jordan's defensive vulnerabilities, as Jordan's xG suggests limited chance creation against a stronger opponent.

The win probability split (Algeria 59%, Draw 22.8%, Jordan 18.2%) indicates a low-likelihood upset. The most likely scoreline of 0–1 (12.2%) and second most likely 0–2 (11%) point to a tight, low-scoring match where Algeria's defense neutralizes Jordan's attack, while Algeria's finishing efficiency drives the result.

Jordan, ranked #65, are making only their second World Cup appearance (first in 2026), while Algeria have a richer tournament history, including a Round of 16 run in 2014. This experience gap, combined with the xG disparity, suggests Jordan will struggle to impose their game plan in a neutral venue.

The model's prediction of a 0–1 or 0–2 scoreline aligns with Algeria's defensive solidity (conceding under 1 xG per game in recent qualifiers) and Jordan's tendency to score less than 1 goal per match against top-40 sides. Expect Algeria to control possession and win by a narrow margin.