🇩🇿 Algeria vs Austria 🇦🇹

The xG model projects a near-even contest (Algeria 1.31 vs Austria 1.39), but Austria’s slight edge in expected goals aligns with their higher FIFA ranking and deeper tournament experience. Algeria’s defensive organization will be tested by Austria’s ability to generate chances from set pieces and transitions, as reflected in the 0–1 scoreline being the second most likely outcome (9.3%).

The win probability split (Algeria 35.4%, Draw 25.8%, Austria 38.8%) indicates a high-variance match where the draw is undervalued relative to the 1–1 most likely score (12.2%). This suggests both teams have similar finishing efficiency, but Austria’s superior xG per shot could prove decisive in a tight knockout-style group game.

Algeria’s 2026 World Cup campaign marks their return after missing 2022, while Austria are seeking to advance past the group stage for only the second time in their history. Historical data shows Austria have won only 2 of their last 10 World Cup matches, but their current squad depth gives them a marginal edge in neutral-site fixtures.

The prediction leans toward a low-scoring draw or narrow Austria win, as the xG difference (0.08) is within the model’s noise margin. However, Austria’s 38.8% win probability and the 0–1 second-favorite scoreline support a cautious Austria victory, likely by a single goal, with the 1–1 draw as the primary alternative.