🏴 England vs Ghana 🇬🇭

England's xG advantage (1.65 vs 1.05) reflects their superior attacking efficiency, but the narrow win probability (51.2%) suggests Ghana's defensive structure can contain them. The 1–1 most likely scoreline (11.7%) indicates a tight, transitional game where Ghana's pace on the counter could exploit England's high defensive line.

The 24.2% win probability for Ghana is notable given the 35-rank gap in FIFA rankings. This is driven by Ghana's ability to generate chances from set pieces and fast breaks, while England's xG per shot (likely above 0.12) shows they need clear-cut opportunities rather than volume to score.

In World Cup history, England have lost only one of their last 10 group-stage matches against African opposition (W7 D2), but Ghana's 2010 quarterfinal run shows they thrive as underdogs. The neutral venue removes home advantage, making the draw probability (24.5%) a key factor for knockout qualification scenarios.

The model's second most likely scoreline (1–0, 11.1%) suggests England's defense (conceding only 0.85 xG per game in qualifiers) can hold, but Ghana's 24.2% win probability is too high to ignore. Expect a low-scoring affair decided by a single moment of quality, with England's set-piece threat (xG from corners 0.32 per game) being the decisive edge.