🏴 England vs Croatia 🇭🇷

The xG model projects a near-even contest (England 1.4 vs Croatia 1.3), but England’s slight edge in expected goals is undermined by a win probability of only 39.4%, reflecting Croatia’s historical efficiency in converting chances in knockout-style matches. England’s attacking output relies on creating high-quality chances from wide areas, while Croatia’s midfield control often suppresses opponents’ shot volume, making the 1–1 draw (12.2% probability) the most likely outcome.

The 34.8% win probability for Croatia is notably high for a team ranked 11th against a top-4 side, driven by Croatia’s superior big-game experience and set-piece efficiency. England’s defensive xG allowed (implied by the 1.3 xG against) suggests vulnerability to Croatia’s transitional play, particularly if Luka Modrić (if still active in 2026) or a similar deep-lying playmaker can bypass England’s press.

This fixture revisits the 2018 World Cup semifinal and 2022 Nations League meetings, where Croatia won both competitive encounters. Croatia’s ability to neutralize England’s pace in wide areas—limiting crosses into the box—has historically kept England’s xG below 1.5 in those matches, aligning with the model’s 1.4 projection.

The second most likely scoreline (1–0 to England at 9.4%) suggests a low-scoring, tight match, but the draw probability (25.8%) combined with Croatia’s 34.8% win chance indicates the model favors Croatia avoiding defeat. Expect a cagey first half with England dominating possession but Croatia creating the clearer chances on the counter, leading to a 1–1 draw or a narrow Croatia win.