🇪🇨 Ecuador vs Germany 🇩🇪

Despite Germany's higher FIFA ranking and 41.9% win probability, the xG gap (1.45 vs 1.25) is narrow, suggesting Ecuador's defensive structure can limit high-quality chances. Ecuador's 32.4% win probability is not negligible, driven by their ability to generate xG from set pieces and transitions against a German backline that has historically struggled with pace.

The most likely scoreline (1-1, 12.2%) reflects a balanced midfield battle where both teams concede expected goals near their averages. Germany's second-most-likely 0-1 win (9.8%) indicates a low-scoring affair is plausible if Ecuador's compact block frustrates German buildup, forcing speculative shots from distance.

Germany's World Cup pedigree (four titles) contrasts with Ecuador's quarterfinal ceiling, but neutral-venue dynamics and Germany's recent group-stage exits (2018, 2022) add volatility. Ecuador's 2022 win over host Qatar and draw with Netherlands show they can neutralize higher-ranked sides in tournament settings.

The model's narrow xG margin and 25.7% draw probability suggest a tight match. Germany's slight edge in win probability is justified by superior individual quality, but Ecuador's counter-attacking threat and set-piece efficiency (key xG drivers) make an upset or draw a realistic outcome.