🇨🇮 Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 🇪🇨

Ecuador's xG advantage (1.45 vs 1.25) reflects their superior FIFA ranking (#23 vs #34) and likely control of midfield transitions, but Ivory Coast's 32.5% win probability suggests they remain dangerous on the counter, especially given their physical edge in set-piece situations.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2% probability) indicates a tightly contested match where both teams are expected to create chances but struggle to convert consistently, aligning with Ecuador's defensive organization (conceding under 1.0 xG per game in qualifiers) against Ivory Coast's reliance on individual brilliance in attack.

Ivory Coast's World Cup history shows they have never advanced past the group stage in three appearances (2006, 2010, 2014), while Ecuador reached the knockout round in 2006 and 2022, giving them a slight psychological edge in high-stakes neutral-venue matches.

The 0–1 scoreline (9.8% probability) as the second most likely outcome suggests Ecuador's compact defensive structure could frustrate Ivory Coast, and with a 41.9% win probability, backing Ecuador to win by a narrow margin aligns with the model's expectation of a low-scoring, disciplined affair.